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Research papers written as of 2007 in cooperation with the ALBA
9. Myanmar Economic Overview 2006, by Winston Set Aung
24. Footwear Industry in Myanmar, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute
29. Fisheries Sector in Myanmar, by Winston Set Aung for Deutsche Bank Representative Office
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1. Investment in Myanmar 2007, by Winston Set Aung for ASEAN Japan Center (July 2007) Contents 1. Country Information Introduction Geography and Population Climate Language and Religion Transport Business Hours Government 2. Economic Overview Inflation and Economic Growth Foreign Direct Investment International Trade 3. Doing Business in Myanmar Application Capital Requirement Capital Registration Fees Basic Business Costs Export-Import Activities Taxation Employment Industrial Zones and SEZ 4. Accounting and Auditing 5. Duties and Taxes 6. Legal Framework Foreign Investment Law Law related to Exports and Imports Labor Laws Customs Act Laws related to Trade Mark 7. Sectoral Information Tourism Sector Fishery Sector Garment and Textile Sector Energy and Mining Sector Agricultural Sector Other Industries
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Contents 1. Background of the Project 1.1. Research Problems and Questions 1.2. Objective of the Study 1.3. Scope of Research 1.4. Study Sites 2. Literature Review 2.1. GMS Tourism Development Initiatives 2.2. Goal and Objective of Sub-regional Cooperation in Tourism Development 2.3. Programs of the GMS Tourism Development Strategy 3. Research Methodology 3.1. Study Area 3.2. Study Design 3.3. Research Process and Steps 4. Analysis on Myanmar Tourism Sector 4.1. Early International Travelers to Myanmar 4.2. Comparison of Myanmar Tourism Sector with those of GMS Countries 4.3. Major Tourist Sites in Myanmar 4.4. Flow of Tourists into Myanmar 4.5. Myanmar's Cooperation with Neighboring Countries 5. Analysis on Pro-Poor Tourism (PPT) Development in Myanmar 6. Analysis on Tourism Infrastructure in Myanmar 6.1. Human Resources Development 6.2. Airline Transport and Facilities 6.3. Road and Rail Transport Facilities 6.4. Water Cruise Transport Facilities 6.5. Travel Agencies 6.6. Hotels and Accommodations 6.7. Restaurants 6.8. Other Tourist Facilities 6.9. Necessity for Sustaining Quality 7. Analysis on Economic and Social Impact 8. Analysis on Environmental Impact 9. Analysis on Factors Affecting Myanmar Tourism Sector 10. Survey Analysis 11. Analysis on Tourism Promotion in Myanmar 11.1. Earlier Efforts 11.2. Recent Efforts 12. Policy Recommendations and Strategic Options 13. Conclusion Plans for Research Results Dissemination Acknowledgements References Appendices Supplementary Report
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3. Investment Opportunity with the Equitization of the Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank), by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (September 2006) Contents Overview of equitization in Vietnam Introduction Government’s guidelines to speed up equitization process Ceiling on foreign investment in equitized enterprises lifted Legal framework and possible amendment related to Strategic Investors Existing grey areas Vietnam’s Banking Sector and Vietcombank Major players in Banking sector Major issues in the sector Vietcombank Table-1. Vietcombank’s Balance Sheet Table-2. Vietcombank’s Income Statement Table-3. Vietcombank’s Off-balance sheet Assets Table-4. Vietcombank’s Cash Flow Statement Table-5. Vietcombank’s Consolidated Balance Sheet Table-6. Vietcombank’s Consolidated Income Statement Vietcombank’s equitization Approval of Vietnambank’s equitization and possible foreign shareholding Convertible bonds in preparation for equitization Equitization plan of Vietcombank Opportunity for foreign investors Table-7. Evaluation of post-equitization Annex 1. Balance Sheet of Vietcombank Securities Company Annex 2. Balance Sheet of Vietnam Finance Company Vinafico Annex 3. Notes of Vietcombank’s Financial Statements
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4. Existing and Future Electricity Infrastructure and Supply around Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in Cambodia, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (September 2006) Contents Introduction Present status of electricity infrastructure in Cambodia Special Economic Zones (SEZ) in Cambodia Electricity infrastructure and supply around promising SEZs in Cambodia Electricity supply to Koh Kong SEZ Electricity supply to Poipet SEZ Electricity supply to Phnom Penh SEZ Electricity supply to Sihanoukville SEZ Electricity supply to Svay Rieng SEZ Issues being faced by Cambodian industries related to electricity Future supply of electricity
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Contents Introduction Factors identification Cross-sectional econometric model development Forecasting FDI flows into Cambodian garment sector Forecasting the FDI garment of Cambodia through the fitted cross-sectional multiple regression model Recommendations
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6. Competitiveness of Textiles and Garment Sector of Cambodia and Existing Impediments, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (February 2006) Contents 1. Summary and Conclusion 2. International Trade in Textile and Garment Sector 3. US Trade Policy regarding Textile and Garment 4. Present Status of Cambodia's Garment Industry 5. Stages of Development of Garment Industry in Cambodia 6. Contribution of Cambodia's Garment Sector to Economic Development 7. Cambodia's Garment Sector in Post Quota-phase-out Period 8. Export Competitiveness 9. Problems and Impediments in Cambodia Garment Sector 9.1. Problems being Faced by Garment Manufacturers 9.2. General Issues being Faced by Cambodia's Garment Sector 9.3. Other Weaknesses Annex 1
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7. Macroeconomics Factors affecting the Trade Competitiveness among the GMS Countries (Myanmar, China, Thailand, Vietnam, Lao PDR and Cambodia), by Winston Set Aung (February 2006) Contents Introduction Methodology Selection of significant export products common to most GMS countries Dynamics of the comparative advantages of each GMS country in selected products Comparison of the dynamics of comparative advantages of different GMS countries in each selected products Reliance of textiles and clothing products of each GMS country on the US and EU markets Impacts of macroeconomic factors on the reliance of Cambodian and Myanmar textiles and clothing products on the US and EU markets Conclusion
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8. The Time to turn Irregular into Regular Migrants, by Winston Set Aung for Mekong Institute, Thailand (January 2006) Contents Introduction Types of Myanmar migrants and legal framework Possible ways to make migration more systematic through cooperation between source and host countries (Table) Problems of different types of Myanmar migrants and possible ways to solve them through cooperation between source and host countries Migration to Myanmar Conclusion
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9. Myanmar Economic Overview 2006, by Winston Set Aung (January 2006) Contents Introduction Is Myanmar going anywhere? Is US Economic Sanction Effective in Myanmar? Is Inflation Cause or Effect? Are US$ Market Rates Something to do with Price Rises? Is Myanmar Trade Sector Vulnerable? Is Myanmar Winner or Loser? Do Driving Forces of Economic Development Have Adverse Effect? Is Myanmar a Potential Country for Investment? Annex: Survey Results
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10. Policy Recommendation for FDI Development at Sihanoukville Area of Cambodia, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute and Japan Bank for International Cooperation (September 2005) Contents 1. Identification of Export Competitive Industries and Products 1) Export Competitive Industry in Cambodia 2) Comparison of Cambodia Competitive Industry with the Same Industry in other Countries 3) Overview of Most Competitive Sectors in Cambodia (1) Garment (i) Garment as the Key Industry in Cambodia (ii) Prospects for Garment in Cambodia (iii) Responses and Opportunity for Action (2) Footwear (i) Footwear as the Second Export Force in Cambodia (ii) Prospects for Footwear Industry in Cambodia (3) Other Potential Sectors 4) Yuan's Effect on Competitiveness of Cambodia's Products 5) Future Scenario of Cambodia's Competitiveness 2. Identification of the Future Possibility of the Industrial Relocation from the Surrounding Countries to the Sihanoukville Industrial Site 1) Survey on Industrial Associations, Investment Authorities and Domestic Industries in Malaysia and Thailand (1) Survey Methodology (2) Survey Results (i) Possibility for Relocation (ii) Selection of Potential Country (iii) Factors affecting FDIs (iv) Sihanoukville Area 2) Survey on Japanese Industries in Malaysia and Thailand (1) Survey Methodology (2) Survey Results 3. Identification of the Methodologies to Improve the Investment Circumstances at the Sihanoukville Industrial Site 1) Importance of the Sihanoukville Area 2) Methodologies to Improve Investment Circumstances at the Sihanoukville Area 3) Future Scenario
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11. Cause-and-Effect Relationship between Economic Indicators and FDI Inflows in Cambodia, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (September 2005) Contents 1) Introduction 2) Possible factors to be included or excluded in the model 3) The model 4) The result Annexure
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Contents 1) Introduction 2) Implementation of Mobile Phone Provision in the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement and an Outlook for Business Environment 3) Market Access Agreement between Vietnam and EU 4) An Outlook for business Environment Accompanying Vietnam's Accession to WTO (1) Time-table for Future Vietnam's Actions Based on Agreements and Existing Plans 5) Outlook for Equitization (1) Current Legal Framework for Equitization (2) Equitization Procedure (3) Requirements for Registration (Issuing at Primary Market) and Listing at the Trading Centers of Vietnam and their Future Developments (4) Future Direction (5) VMS Study in Brief (6) GPC Study in Brief (7) Aftermath of Equitization 6) An Outlook for Business Environment Resulting from Transition of Business Cooperation Contracts (BCC) into Joint Ventures 7) Interconnection Problems and Future Scenario to Ease these Problems 8) Development of Business Opportunities and Possible business Strategy
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13. The Econometric Relationship between Exports and FDI in Vietnam, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (March 2005) Contents Relationship between FDI and exports (1) Impact of FDI on exports (2) Forecast of the total exports with FDI related determinants (3) Impact of Exports and Imports on FDI Annex 1 |
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14. The Econometric Relationship between Exports and FDI in Cambodia, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (March 2005) Contents Relationship between FDI and exports (1) Impact of Investment Flows on exports (2) Forecasting the Exports (3) Impact of Exports on Total Active Investment Annex 1 |
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16. Security Export Control in Thailand, by Winston Set Aung in cooperation with Hitoshi Sakai of Nomura Research Institute for Japan International Cooperation Agency (December 2004) Contents 1. Introduction 2. International Export Control Regimes 2.1. Wassenaar Arrangement (WA) 2.2. Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) 2.3. Australia Group (AG) 2.4. Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) 3. Export Control System in Thailand 3.1. Present status of security export control 3.1.1. Characteristics of export control in Thailand 3.1.2. Relevant ministries and agencies of export control in Thailand 3.1.3. Export-Control-Related Laws and Organizations involved in Enforcement of Export Control in Thailand 3.1.3.1. Characteristics of laws and regulations 3.1.3.2. Export and Import of Goods Act under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Commerce 3.1.3.3. Hazardous Substances Act under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Industry 3.1.3.4. Atomic Energy for Peace Act under the jurisdiction of Office of Atoms for Peace 3.1.3.5. Pathogens and Animal Toxins Act under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Public Health 3.1.3.6. Armament Control Act and regulations on arms export under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense 3.1.3.7. Legal sources of export control by the Ministry of Science 3.1.3.8. Customs Act under the jurisdiction of the Department of Customs 3.1.3.9. National Security Council Act under the jurisdiction of the National Security Council 3.1.3.10. Other relevant ministries and agencies and relevant laws and regulations 3.1.4. Export procedures 3.1.4.1. Export procedure currently practiced in Thailand 3.1.4.2. Export procedure compared to neighboring countries 3.1.5. Present status of control based on schedules in Thailand 4. Future Direction for the enhancement of system and Thailand’s needs for support 4.1. The future direction for the enhancement of the system 4.1.1. Future direction regarding the control on dual-used items 4.2. Areas in which technological assistance is feasible Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 Control of Exports of Dual-used Items and Technology in Thailand Compared to the EU |
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17. Security Export Control in Myanmar, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute and Japan International Cooperation Agency (January 2005) Contents 1. Security Export Control System in Myanmar 1-1. Present Situation of Security Export Control System in Myanmar 1) Characteristics of Security Export Control System in Myanmar (1) Situation under Economic Sanctions (2) Licensing System (3) Controlled Items 2) Agencies involved in Security Export Control in Myanmar 3) Legal Framework of Security Export Control in Myanmar (1) Characteristics of Laws and Regulations (2) Laws enforced by the Ministry of Commerce (i) The Control of Import-Export (Temporary) At, 1947 (ii) The Control of Imports and Exports (Temporary) (Amendment) Act, 1957 (iii) The Control of Imports and Exports (Temporary) (Amendment) Act, 1960 (iv) Myanmar Export/Import Rules and Regulations (1994, 1998) (v) Order 6/98 (22-3-98) Order Defining Items of Goods Not Permitted to be Exported (vi) Order 10/99 (26-11-99) Order Defining Items of Goods Not Permitted to be Exported (3) Laws enforced by the Customs Department under the Ministry of Finance (i) The Sea Customs Act, 1878 (ii) The Land Customs Act, 1924 (4) Laws enforced by the Ministry of Defense (i) The Arms Act, 1878 (iii) The Naval Armament Act, 1923 (5) Others (i) The Explosive Substances Act, 1908 (ii) The Poisons Act, 1919 4) Contents of Lists 5) Enforcement (1) Detection of Illegal Exports (i) Inspection for normal regular exported items (ii) Inspection for exported items that need special technical knowledge (2) Cases of Export control violation (3) Penalties 1-2. Future Direction of Security Export Control and Needs for Support in Myanmar 1) Future Direction of Security Export Control Enhancement 2) Myanmar’s Needs for Support Annex 1. Major Comparison of Export Control System between Myanmar and Japan |
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18. Industry Outlook: Garment and Textile Industry in Vietnam, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (February 2005) Garment Industry Outlook Output of Vietnam’s garment and textile industry Impacts of AFTA, MFA abolishment and WTO accession Financial needs (Appendix) Evaluation Manual for the Selection of Potential Enterprises in Garment Industry |
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Contents 1. Review of Business Environment of SMEs and SME Development Policy 2. Implied Policies in ADB Roadmap 3. Recommended Policies (1) Target SMEs for SME Policy (2) SME Definition (3) Land Use Rights (4) Technology Transfer through FDIs (5) Competition Law and Investment Incentives (6) Credit Assessment on Collateral (7) Business Associations and its Role to be Enhanced (8) Credit Guarantee Funds (9) Stock Market Development for SMEs (10) Technical Assistance Centers Annex |
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20. Outlines of Review and Recommendations for SME Policy in Vietnam, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (November 2004) Contents 1. General Situation of SME policy and problems regarding policy enforcement in Vietnam 2. Implied Policies in ADB Roadmap |
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23. SMEs/SMIs Development in Myanmar Compared to other Asian and Developed Countries, by Winston Set Aung in cooperation with Mr. Hitoshi Sakai of Nomura Research Institute (November 2003) Contents I. Criteria for Definitions of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) Implications for Myanmar Practical Way to Set Criteria for the Definition of SMEs/SMIs II. Government Ministries and Agnecies Specializing in SMEs Development Implications for Myanmar Problems and Complication for Starting SME/SMIs in Myanmar III. Background for the Adoption of SMEs Policies, Supporting Measures and Implication for Myanmar Practical Way to Integrate and Develop SMEs in Myanmar Recommended Step-by-Step Implementation to Develop SME/SMIs in Myanmar A. The Republic of Korea (South Korea) Implications for Myanmar B. Singapore Implications for Myanmar C. Thailand Implications for Myanmar D. Malaysia Implications for Myanmar E. Indonesia Implications for Myanmar F. The Philippines Implications for Myanmar G. Vietnam Implications for Myanmar H. China Implications for Myanmar I. United States Implications for Myanmar J. United Kingdom Implications for Myanmar K. Japan L. Myanmar (1) Points to Note Regarding SME Policy in Myanmar Proposed Outlines of SMEs Development Policy and Strategy for Myanmar Modernization of Equipments (2) Examples of the Measures (i) To Provide Management and Technological Guidance by UMFCCI (ii) To Rehabilitate and Upgrade Industrial Zones Major Problems of Industrial Estate Development in Myanmar Measure for Industrial Estate Development in Myanmar Proposed Action Plans for SMEs/SMIs Development |
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24. Footwear Industry in Myanmar, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (September 2002) Contents 1. International Footwear Insutry 2. Footwear Industries in Major International Markets 2.1. US Footwear Industry 2.2. Hong Kong's Footwear Industry 2.3. Vietnam's Footwear Industry 2.4. Thailand's Footwear Industry 3. Present Status of Myanmar Footwear Industry 3.1. Supply-side Analyses 3.1.1. Footwear Manufacturers 3.1.2. Analyses on Footwear Manufacturing 3.1.2.1. Small-scaled and Medium-scaled Footwear Production Businesses 3.1.2.2. Production Process 3.1.2.3. Availability and Supply of Raw Materials 3.1.2.4. Production of Raw Materials and Parts Necessary for Footwear Production 3.1.2.5. Production of Government Footwear Factories 3.1.3. Analysis on Suppliers (Retailers and Wholesalers) 3.1.3.1. Different Types of Footwear Shops 3.1.3.2. Different Types of Local-made and Foreign-made Footwear 3.1.3.3. Price Variability and Average Sales Volume 3.1.3.4. Quality and Design of Footwear having Higher Demand 3.1.3.5. Different Brands of Footwear Having Highest Sales Level 3.1.4. Analyses on Imports 3.1.4.1. Time-series Analysis on the Imports of Different Types of Footwear in 1998/99, 1999/00 and 2000/01 3.1.4.2. Analysis on the Imports of Footwear by Country During the Last Three Years 3.2. Demand-side Analyses 3.2.1. Customers and End-users Analysis 3.2.1.1. Types of Footwear Preferred by Different Age-groups and Different Income Levels 3.2.1.2. Estimated Demand of Different Types of Footwear by Different Age-groups and Different Income Levels 3.2.1.4. Different Views of People on Different Types of Footwear 3.2.1.5. Factors Considered by Different Age-groups and Different Income Levels in Buying Different Types of Footwear 3.2.1.6. Mentality of People in Myanmar in Buying Different Types of Footwear 3.2.2. Analysis on Footwear Exports 3.3. Export Competitiveness 3.4. Present Impediments and Problems for Export Promotion 4. Outlook on Domestic Market Growth and Import Substitution 5. Present Impediments and Problems for Import Substitution 6. Policy Recommendations 7. Conclusion Proposed Action Plan for Myanmar Footwear Industry Annexure 1: Questionnaires for Footwear Research |
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27. Analysis on Supporting Industries in Different Economic Sectors of Myanmar, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (November 2002) Contents Introduction 1. Construction Sector 1.1. Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development 1.2. Department of Public Works 1.3. Myanmar Industrial Construction Services 1.4. Private Sector Construction 1.5. Cement Industries 1.6. Steel Bars Industries 1.7. Brick Industries 1.8. Other Construction Materials 1.9. Policy Recommendations Annexure 1 2. Fishery Sector 2.1. Fishing Crafts and Boat Building 2.2. Fishing Gears and Nets 2.3. Shrimp Farming and Hatcheries 2.4. Fish Farming and Hatcheries 2.5. Ice Making and Cold Storage Facilities 2.6. Problems and Policy Recommendations Annexure 2 3. Mineral Resources Sector 3.1. Mineral Resources in Mining Sector 3.2. Mineral Resources in Energy Sector 3.3. Policy Recommendations Annexure 3 4. Agricultural Sector 4.1. Dam and River Water Pumping Projects for Irrigation (Supporting Projects for the Development of Agricultural Sector) 4.2. Agricultural Machinery Industry 4.3. Land Cultivation (Supporting Projects for the Development of Agricultural Sector) 4.4. Financial Industrial for Agriculture 4.5. Policy Recommendations Annexure 4 5. Plastic Industries 5.1. Problems and Policy Recommendations |
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28. Machine Production Industries in Myanmar, by Winston Set Aung for Nomura Research Institute (February 2002) Contents 1. Introduction 2. Machinery production industries in private sector 3. State-owned machinery production industries 3.1. Machinery production industries under the Ministry of Industry No.1 3.2. Machinery production industries under the Ministry of Rails 3.3. Machinery production industries under the Ministry of Transport 3.4. Machinery production industries under the Cooperatives Ministry 3.5. Others 3.6. Machinery production industries under Ministry of Industry No. 2 3.6.1. Myanma Agricultural Machinery Industries 3.6.2. Myanma Automobile and Diesel Engine Industries 3.6.3. Myanma Machine Tools and Electrical Industries 3.6.4. Myanma Tyre and Rubber Industries 3.6.5. Myanma Industrial Construction Services 3.6.6. Joint Ventures under the Ministry of Industry No. 2 4. Economic cooperation activities in the state machinery production sector 5. Activities and promotions for the development of Industrial Zones 6. Machinery export/import status in Myanmar 7. Comments and conclusion |
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29. Fisheries Sector in Myanmar, by Winston Set Aung for Deutsche Bank Representative Office (November 1999) Contents Objective1. Introduction 1.1. Aquaculture 1.2. Brief History on Marine fishing in Myanmar 2. Fisheries resources and production 2.1. Fish resources 2.2. Categories of fish depending on environment 2.3. Resources and production of some popular fisheries 2.3.1. Hilsa resource and production 2.3.2. Bombay duck resource and production 2.3.3. Reef fisheries resource and production 2.3.4. Crab resource and production 2.3.5. Shrimp resource and production 2.3.5.1. Freshwater shrimp production 2.3.5.2. Marine shrimp production 3. Fishing crafts and fishing gears 4. Fishing ports and fish landing centers 5. Ice making, cold storage facilities 6. Distribution 7. Export 8. Conclusion 9. References |
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